German investors are pessimistic - but is their displeasure justified? What do the forecasts for currencies, shares, real estate and the risk of recession really look like?

The stock markets of the major industrialized countries are currently close to their record prices and investors are hoping for interest rate cuts and the absence of a recession. But how likely is this scenario? And how will shares react to changes in interest rates or a worsening economy?

Unlike other commodities, gold is currently experiencing a boom - a development that, on closer inspection, is favored by many factors. You can read about them here.

Falling interest rates are supposed to make real asset investments more attractive. However, the connection is far from clear and simple. What a turnaround in interest rates would mean for real estate, gold and shares.

Share prices in the USA, France and even Germany are reaching new highs as investors believe in interest rate cuts. There no longer seems to be a risk of recession - or is there?

The US economy is currently in a much better position than the European economy. However, this success has come at a high price and is not sustainable. The stock markets in Europe are likely to perform better in the coming years.

Just in time for the Christmas season, numerous capital market outlooks for the year 2024 are being published. Unfortunately, many of the forecasts they contain only have a probability of occurrence corresponding to chance. But there are also serious indications of the future.

For decades, countries have been pursuing risky, debt-based economic policies. In times of climate change and geopolitical instability, this threatens to take its revenge. However, it is doubtful whether they will take the necessary countermeasures.

Central banks have been calculating core inflation using the same formula for 50 years. However, in times of demographic change and protectionist economic policies, this is no longer up to date.