You can always rely on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else. Donald Trump has apparently opted for the latter in particular - and a lot is currently being tried out: tariffs, inflation promises, tax intentions, stock recommendations. Anyone thinking of market manipulation is not entirely wrong. Trump's proximity to speculative self-interest recently culminated in the promotion of his own cryptocurrency - including a dinner invitation to the White House.

A president who promises his supporters access to a dinner if they hold enough of his private cryptocurrency - that has historical depth. Studies by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy show: Just four years of Trump could cost Americans around 6% of their real income. This is not a polemic. This is economics. An international comparison also shows how dangerous corruption is for prosperity: countries with a high level of corruption achieve a significantly lower per capita income on average. The USA under Trump is well on the way to confirming this correlation empirically.

It is not just Trump's economic cluelessness that is worrying investors - it is the blatant loss of credibility. After barely 100 days in office, President Trump has triggered a level of trade policy uncertainty not seen even during his first presidency - according to the US Federal Reserve, the index is now four times as high as it was then and consumer confidence has also fallen to its second-lowest level since 1952. The fact that US equities are nevertheless still highly valued is like collective amnesia.

At the same time, the weakness of the US economic model is becoming increasingly visible. For over a decade, American growth has been based on massive government spending, even in times of low unemployment. A significant proportion of this spending has ended up in the coffers of US companies - an advantage that European companies have not had. But the model is reaching its limits: Debt levels are high, the air for new economic stimulus is getting thinner - and with it the profit growth of many US corporations.

Europe looks downright solid in comparison. Debt levels are lower, company valuations are more attractive and politicians are making targeted investments in infrastructure and defense. Countries such as Germany are catching up on decades of investment backlogs, while Europe as a whole wants to become more independent in terms of security policy - not least because it can no longer rely on Trump's America. In addition, a weaker US dollar (historically a reliable companion to political instability) could give European equities a tailwind.

A weaker dollar, stable framework conditions and new government stimuli are therefore making European markets more attractive - not spectacularly, but reliably. And sometimes that is precisely the better strategy. Especially when others are still trying everything else.

Capital market outlook