Polis

• According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund), global government debt will exceed the 100,000 billion dollar mark for the first time in 2024. The USA accounts for over a third of this.
• Trump's policy of tax cuts and tariff increases could further exacerbate the debt problem.
• According to studies, populism has a negative effect on the economy; populist measures often have a long-term negative impact, as the rising inflation in Turkey shows.
• Economic weaknesses: The increase in tariffs drives inflation up and consumption down. This results in counter-tariffs from the countries whose goods are subject to tariffs. The rejection of migration leads to a worsening labor shortage and rising wage costs. To finance the resulting costs, Trump wants to establish a dependent central bank.
• In the three major regions of the US, China and the eurozone, leading indicators point to an increased likelihood of recession. France is also struggling with rising deficits.

Development

• The US government deficit currently stands at over 6%, partly due to subsidies for the construction of factories. This strategy is not sustainable in the long term; the national debt is now over 120% of GDP.
• The risk of a recession increases significantly if austerity measures are taken. If these fail to materialize, debt will continue to rise sharply and jeopardize the credit rating in the long term, which could further dampen economic growth.
• Fifteen years ago, the net foreign debt of the USA was still around 10 to 15 %. Since then, it has risen to almost 80 %. A strong dollar attracts capital, but slows down exports and increases the trade deficit. The USA would have to sell more dollars to service interest payments, which depresses the dollar exchange rate and weighs on the economy.
• Loan defaults in the USA are rising to levels above those of the financial crisis. The default rate for mortgage-backed office properties is already over 9%. The creation of new jobs is also weakening. Residential construction in particular, a traditional recession indicator, recently fell by 26%.
• In China, investment in residential construction has slumped by 68% in the last three years. Government subsidies for factories are intended to promote exports, but are increasing the debt burden, particularly at municipal level.
• China's biggest long-term problem is the demographic slump: the fall in the birth rate from 17 million to 9 million since 2015 has led to vacant apartments and a shortage of labor.
• The eurozone is suffering from falling exports to the USA and China, while competition from China is increasing - which is further reducing capacity utilization.

Investments

• Government bonds are also less attractive in a recession scenario, as creditworthiness problems could increase.
• Gold benefits from global uncertainties and shines with its resilience to inflation
• Residential real estate appears attractive in countries such as Germany and Japan with low mortgage interest rates, but less so in the USA, where high prices and interest rates are dampening demand.
• US stock market and AI valuations: AI investments are expensive and may struggle to meet high expectations. The healthcare and consumer staples sectors, on the other hand, are considered more stable.
• Private equity investments in non-cyclical sectors could deliver a better performance than highly valued equity markets.

Plateau:

• A reduction in the US equity allocation, particularly in overvalued trend themes such as AI, is currently being considered.
• If interest rates fall further, residential real estate and gold could offer additional stability and growth.
• Beware of Trump's potential influence on the central bank, which could further drive up the gold price.
• Conclusion: Portfolio adjustments in less volatile markets and sectoral diversification are recommended as a strategy.